Defending champions England have lost four out of five matches at the World Cup and are languishing in ninth spot in the 10-team table, but astoundingly they are still in contention for a semi-finals, even if the progression is still not in their hands. The only factor that has allowed them to escape elimination consistently despite failing to show up constantly is the format of the ongoing ICC event.
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It’s the same thing that allowed Australia to get back into contention for semi-final spots despite two straight losses upfront and has kept Pakistan from being knocked out inspite of three consecutive hammerings.
It’s the 10-team round-robin format that has cut down the chances of Afghanistan reaching the semi-finals even though they have caused two massive upsets; by beating reigning world champions England and 1992 winners Pakistan.
The Netherlands, on paper the weakest team in the tournament, are also not free to dream despite beating South Africa. At max, they can hope for another upset but progression to the next round looks next to impossible.
How and why?
Essentially it’s the round robin format that undervalues an upset or two and favours big teams in the long run. Like Afghanistan, even if you beat two Test playing nations, it won’t be enough in a format where you have to play nine matches to qualify for the semi-finals. When you have nine games to qualify, the bigger teams will catch up sooner or later. If the semi-finalists are going to be decided after nine games for each team, then a couple of upsets won’t be enough.
In the 2019 World Cup, which also had the same format, the fourth team to qualify for the semi-finals had 11 points — which means a minimum of five wins.
An Afghanistan or Netherlands would be able to add more spice to the tournament with the upsets they caused but unless they start earning five wins, at least, a semi-final spot would remain a distant dream.
A single group format heavily favours the top teams as despite losing a few matches, they always have more chances based on their talent wherewithal, and experience to bounce back and edge ahead of the weaker teams.
What is the solution?
The format that ICC used in the 2007 World Cup was a more open format which gave equal chances to the teams to reach the next stage. The 16 teams in the World Cup held in the West Indies were divided into four groups consisting of four sides each.
In such a format even a single win and a tie (points shared) would have been enough to reach the next stage which in 2007 was the Super Eight. And exactly that is what happened in 2007 when Ireland progressed from Group D, finishing second with three points (one win and a tie). Pakistan were dumped out after finishing third in the group.
India also suffered the same fate. Bangladesh caused an upset against them and the Men in Blue later lost to Sri Lanka to finish third in the group thanks to a solitary win over Bermuda.
As we said, two wins were enough for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to qualify. And in such a format, Afghanistan could have qualified with their two wins, but they wouldn’t and by the end of the round-robin format in 2023 they would very well be knocked out.
Why is ICC not going to the 2007 format?
In simple terms, it’s because of the money at stake in the World Cup. The ICC events are the biggest money spinners for the global cricket organisation. Star Sports Network has paid $3 billion to ICC for the TV and digital rights for the mega events for the period of 2024-2027. In such a scenario, upsets are unhealthy for ICC’s health.
They want teams like India, Pakistan, and the other top cricketing nations to reach the final stages to ensure eyeballs. In the lack of eyeballs, the value of ICC events will reduce significantly. That’s exactly the reason why ICC never went back to the 2007 format after the early exit of India and Pakistan.
In 2011 and 2015 when the ODI World Cup was a 14-team affair, the teams were divided into two groups with seven sides each followed by quarter-finals. A slightly smaller group as compared to the 2023 format but enough matches for good teams to make a comeback in case of an upset.
The format for 2019 was shelved to create a foolproof tournament that favoured big teams. As the ODI World Cup went from 14 to 10 teams, they are now put in a single group with four teams reaching the semi-finals.
These four teams in all probability would be the top four teams after all they have nine matches (chances) to qualify.
from Firstpost Sports Latest News https://ift.tt/R1pXUMq
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