The Group 1 points table at the ongoing T20 World Cup looked daunting right from the start and has only gotten precarious three weeks into the tournament. New Zealand, England, and hosts Australia all stand on five points from four matches and have one match to play.
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England defeated New Zealand on Tuesday and not only did they keep their hopes alive, but also pushed defending champions Australia into a tumultuous situation. The NRR will be a crucial factor for deciding the semi-finalists unless there are some unexpected results — which the tournament has seen manifold.
With the top teams only separated on the basis of NRR, we take a look at the qualification scenario. Let’s start with understanding the remaining fixtures.
Group 1 is still wide open with a game to go for each team 👀
Who do you think will clinch the semi-final spots? 🤔
Full #T20WorldCup standings ➡ https://t.co/phnXR5PYyu pic.twitter.com/tg4bU3NVk4
— ICC (@ICC) November 1, 2022
Remaining Fixtures in Group 1
Ireland vs New Zealand, 4 November at Adelaide Oval
Australia vs Afghanistan, 4 November at Adelaide Oval
England vs Sri Lanka, 5 November at SCG
Who are the front-runners to qualify for the semi-finals?
New Zealand have an edge with their better NRR, to qualify for the semi-finals. The equation is quite simple for them as a win against Ireland will almost guarantee them a semi-final berth irrespective of the margin of win. They have a net run rate of +2.233 and lead the other two teams with a significant margin.
England are better placed than Australia currently as they have a positive NRR of 0.547. Purely speaking, they have a lead of 50 runs against Australia. However, they play a tougher opposition in Sri Lanka as compared to New Zealand and Australia.
England will also know the exact equation they need to qualify as they play a day after the other two games are played out.
How can Australia qualify for the semi-finals?
Australia play a slightly easier opposition in Afghanistan but are on the back foot due to their significantly poorer NRR. Australia will not only have to beat Afghanistan but also do that with a big margin to qualify. If Australia fail to overtake England’s NRR, they will have to rely on Sri Lanka beating England to go through to the semi-finals.
The hosts and the defending champions have to play out of their skins against Afghanistan to stay alive in the tournament. Their 89-run defeat against New Zealand in the opening encounter has haunted them throughout.
Group 1 Qualification scenario 1:
– NZ beat Ireland and likely to top the group due to NRR.
– Australia beat Afghanistan by X Runs.
– England beats Sri Lanka by Y Runs.X > Y + 50 = Australia Qualifies.
X < Y + 50 = England Qualifies.– England has 50 runs lead.
— Mufaddal Vohra (@mufaddal_vohra) November 1, 2022
Can other teams still qualify for the semi-finals?
Afghanistan have been officially eliminated, but Ireland and Sri Lanka do have a mathematical chance to qualify. Ireland will need a win with a significantly big margin (their NRR is -1.544) and then expect Afghanistan to beat Australia and Sri Lanka to topple England.
On the other hand, a win against England can take Sri Lanka to the semi-finals, if one of Australia or New Zealand loses on Friday.
The last two days for Group 1 will be exciting and victory margins are expected to decide the qualifiers, so expect the players to throw themselves at the boundary lines saving those ones and twos.
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